US recession by end of 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 93% for "US recession by end of 2026?". The market has traded $1.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Resilient U.S. economic data through mid-2026 underpin the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year while core measures held near 2.5%, and nonfarm payrolls plus real retail sales remained near record highs amid unemployment stabilizing around 4.3%. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace, supported by business investment in AI-driven productivity and contained energy price effects from earlier supply shocks. Analyst recession probabilities for the next 12 months sit near 25-30%, reflecting a low-hire, low-fire labor market equilibrium. A sudden escalation in trade barriers or sharp consumer spending contraction could still alter the near-term trajectory before December.

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