PREDICTION MARKETS · VIA POLYMARKET

61 live market signals.

The events that move markets — Fed decisions, recession, inflation, crypto milestones — priced in real time by traders with money on the line. A money-weighted read on what the crowd is betting, not just saying. Odds sourced from Polymarket.

ODDS UPDATED Aug 15, 06:30 UTC · AUTO-REFRESHES THROUGH THE DAY

Browse all 2,642 markets:Politics 837 Geopolitics 480 Economy 236 Crypto 237 Sports 525 Tech & Science 243 Culture 66 Other 18

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61 live · 7 settled

POLITICS▼ 2.4pt 24H

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 20%
Gavin Newsom: 16%
Jon Ossoff: 15%

VOL $1258.2MENDS Nov 7, 2028

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
J.D. Vance: 47%
Marco Rubio: 23%

VOL $688.0MENDS Nov 7, 2028

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance23%

JD Vance: 23%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%
Marco Rubio: 13%

VOL $684.8MENDS Nov 7, 2028

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva64%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 64%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 28%
Renan Santos: 7%

VOL $123.1MENDS Oct 4, 2026

POLITICS▲ 0.5pt 24H

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen32%

Marine Le Pen: 32%
Édouard Philippe: 26%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 14%

VOL $119.1MENDS Apr 30, 2027

POLITICS▲ 1.0pt 24H

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

No84%

No: 84%
Yes: 17%

VOL $58.6MENDS Dec 31, 2026

FED / RATES▼ 0.8pt 24H

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)85%

0 (0 bps): 85%
1 (25 bps): 10%
2 (50 bps): 4%

VOL $48.5MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra93%

Xavier Becerra: 93%
Steve Hilton: 7%
Chad Bianco: 0%

VOL $40.7MENDS Nov 3, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No96%

No: 96%
Yes: 4%

VOL $39.7MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▲ 0.9pt 24H

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei82%

Mojtaba Khamenei: 82%
No Head of State: 5%
Reza Pahlavi: 3%

VOL $38.6MENDS Dec 31, 2026

FED / RATES▲ 2.0pt 24H

Fed Decision in September?

No change75%

No change: 75%
25 bps increase: 25%
25 bps decrease: 1%

VOL $33.3MENDS Sep 16, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot53%

Gadi Eizenkot: 53%
Benjamin Netanyahu: 28%
Naftali Bennett: 6%

VOL $32.0MENDS Dec 31, 2026

CRYPTOFLAT 24H

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

by December 31, 20263%

by December 31, 2026: 3%
by September 30, 2025: 0%
by December 31, 2025: 0%

VOL $27.1MENDS Jan 1, 2027

POLITICS▼ 0.5pt 24H

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202726%

June 30, 2027: 26%
December 31: 18%
November 30: 13%

VOL $23.5MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▲ 1.0pt 24H

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202713%

June 30, 2027: 13%
December 31, 2026: 8%
September 30, 2026: 2%

VOL $20.6MENDS Jun 30, 2027

POLITICS▲ 1.0pt 24H

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)71%

United Russia (ER): 71%
New People (NL): 20%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR): 6%

VOL $19.3MENDS Sep 20, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 318%

December 31: 8%
October 31: 5%
August 31: 1%

VOL $17.8MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▲ 1.0pt 24H

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3119%

December 31: 19%
November 30: 10%
October 31: 6%

VOL $14.8MENDS Aug 31, 2026

POLITICS▲ 1.0pt 24H

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Karen Bass68%

Karen Bass: 68%
Nithya Raman: 32%
Rick Caruso: 0%

VOL $13.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

No97%

No: 97%
Yes: 3%

VOL $11.7MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▲ 1.0pt 24H

Trump out as President before 2027?

No95%

No: 95%
Yes: 6%

VOL $10.7MENDS Dec 31, 2026

CRYPTOFLAT 24H

Bitcoin all time high by ___?

December 31, 20265%

December 31, 2026: 5%
September 30, 2026: 1%
March 31, 2026: 0%

VOL $9.6MENDS Jan 1, 2027

POLITICS▼ 2.0pt 24H

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3131%

December 31: 31%
September 30: 17%
August 31: 8%

VOL $8.3MENDS Aug 31, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

December 313%

December 31: 3%
March 31: 0%
April 30: 0%

VOL $7.8MENDS Dec 31, 2026

FED / RATES▲ 7.0pt 24H

Fed rate hike in 2026?

No56%

No: 56%
Yes: 45%

VOL $7.5MENDS Dec 9, 2026

POLITICS▲ 7.2pt 24H

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

464%

4: 64%
5: 27%
6: 4%

VOL $7.4MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

US military action against Cuba by...?

December 3120%

December 31: 20%
January 31: 0%
March 31: 0%

VOL $7.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026

FED / RATES▲ 1.1pt 24H

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.75%41%

3.75%: 41%
4.0%: 26%
4.25%: 14%

VOL $6.8MENDS Dec 9, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

December 313%

December 31: 3%
August 31: 0%
June 30: 0%

VOL $6.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▲ 0.5pt 24H

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 3127%

December 31: 27%
October 31: 12%
August 31: 2%

VOL $5.9MENDS Dec 31, 2026

CRYPTOFLAT 24H

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

No95%

No: 95%
Yes: 5%

VOL $4.8MENDS Jan 1, 2027

POLITICS▲ 0.5pt 24H

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro83%

Flávio Bolsonaro: 83%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 9%
Renan Santos: 7%

VOL $4.7MENDS Oct 4, 2026

POLITICS▲ 8.3pt 24H

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

No Meeting by September 3070%

No Meeting by September 30: 70%
Switzerland: 10%
Pakistan: 9%

VOL $4.2MENDS Sep 30, 2026

POLITICS▼ 1.5pt 24H

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3122%

December 31: 22%
October 31: 8%
August 31: 2%

VOL $4.2MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▲ 0.5pt 24H

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

December 3116%

December 31: 16%
October 31: 0%
December 31: 0%

VOL $4.1MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party53%

Democratic Party: 53%
Republican Party: 48%

VOL $3.9MENDS Nov 3, 2026

POLITICS▲ 0.6pt 24H

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Byron Donalds99%

Byron Donalds: 99%
James Fishback: 1%
Jay Collins: 0%

VOL $3.7MENDS Aug 18, 2026

POLITICS▲ 2.0pt 24H

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

No66%

No: 66%
Yes: 35%

VOL $3.6MENDS Nov 3, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 202711%

June 30, 2027: 11%
December 31: 8%
June 30: 0%

VOL $3.6MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▼ 0.5pt 24H

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson84%

Magdalena Andersson: 84%
Ulf Kristersson: 16%
Jimmie Åkesson: 1%

VOL $3.6MENDS Sep 13, 2026

POLITICS▲ 2.5pt 24H

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

December 31, 202613%

December 31, 2026: 13%
June 30, 2026: 0%

VOL $3.5MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▼ 2.5pt 24H

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

December 31, 202636%

December 31, 2026: 36%
December 31: 0%
November 30: 0%

VOL $3.4MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Alexandru Nazare48%

Alexandru Nazare: 48%
Sorin Grindeanu: 22%
Radu Burnete: 7%

VOL $3.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▲ 0.5pt 24H

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

No93%

No: 93%
Yes: 8%

VOL $3.3MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▼ 5.0pt 24H

Berlin State Election Winner

Linke41%

Linke: 41%
CDU: 28%
AfD: 17%

VOL $3.2MENDS Sep 20, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

No93%

No: 93%
Yes: 7%

VOL $3.2MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICSFLAT 24H

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

United Russia (ER)98%

United Russia (ER): 98%
Yabloko: 1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF): 0%

VOL $3.2MENDS Sep 20, 2026

POLITICS▼ 0.5pt 24H

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

December 3112%

December 31: 12%
March 31: 0%
April 30: 0%

VOL $3.1MENDS Dec 31, 2026

TECH / AIFLAT 24H

AI bubble burst by...?

December 31, 202614%

December 31, 2026: 14%
March 31, 2026: 0%
December 31, 2025: 0%

VOL $2.9MENDS Dec 31, 2026

POLITICS▼ 3.5pt 24H

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

December 3137%

December 31: 37%
September 30: 11%
May 31: 0%

VOL $2.9MENDS Dec 31, 2026

TECH / AI▲ 2.5pt 24H

OpenAI IPO by...?

December 31, 202619%

December 31, 2026: 19%
September 30, 2026: 2%
August 31, 2026: 0%

VOL $2.7MENDS Dec 31, 2026

CRYPTOFLAT 24H

Ethereum all time high by ___?

December 31, 20265%

December 31, 2026: 5%
September 30, 2026: 1%
March 31, 2026: 0%

VOL $2.4MENDS Jan 1, 2027

FED / RATES▼ 0.5pt 24H

Fed rate hike by...?

October Meeting40%

October Meeting: 40%
September Meeting: 23%
April Meeting: 0%

VOL $2.2MENDS Oct 29, 2026

TECH / AI▼ 0.5pt 24H

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by December 31, 202683%

No IPO by December 31, 2026: 83%
1.5T+: 6%
750B–1T: 5%

VOL $2.0MENDS Dec 31, 2026

MACROFLAT 24H

US recession by end of 2026?

No93%

No: 93%
Yes: 8%

VOL $1.7MENDS Dec 31, 2026

TECH / AI▼ 2.0pt 24H

Anthropic IPO by __?

December 31, 202681%

December 31, 2026: 81%
October 31, 2026: 64%
September 30, 2026: 14%

VOL $1.4MENDS Jul 1, 2027

CRYPTO▲ 2.0pt 24H

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?

December 3173%

December 31: 73%
March 31: 0%
June 30: 0%

VOL $1.2MENDS Jan 1, 2027

TECH / AI▲ 0.5pt 24H

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

December 3118%

December 31: 18%
September 30: 6%
June 30: 0%

VOL $1.1MENDS Dec 31, 2026

CRYPTOFLAT 24H

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

No98%

No: 98%
Yes: 3%

VOL $1.0MENDS Dec 31, 2026

CRYPTO▲ 0.5pt 24H

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

S&P 50070%

S&P 500: 70%
Gold: 19%
Bitcoin: 13%

VOL $883KENDS Dec 31, 2026

CRYPTOFLAT 24H

Solana all time high by ___?

December 31, 20264%

December 31, 2026: 4%
September 30, 2026: 1%
March 31, 2026: 0%

VOL $822KENDS Jan 1, 2027

// SETTLED (7)

POLITICSSETTLED

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

August 3163%

August 31: 63%
August 14: 48%
July 31: 20%

VOL $9.9MRESOLVED Aug 31, 2026

CRYPTOSETTLED

What price will Bitcoin hit August 3-9?

↑ 64,000100%

↑ 64,000: 100%
↑ 76,000: 0%
↑ 74,000: 0%

VOL $1.6MRESOLVED Aug 10, 2026

CRYPTOSETTLED

What price will Solana hit in July?

↑ 80100%

↑ 80: 100%
↓ 70: 1%
↑ 80: 0%

VOL $1.2MRESOLVED Aug 1, 2026

CRYPTOSETTLED

What price will XRP hit in July?

↓ 1.004%

↓ 1.00: 4%
↑ 3.00: 0%
↑ 2.80: 0%

VOL $1.0MRESOLVED Aug 1, 2026

POLITICSSETTLED

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

August 1513%

August 15: 13%
July 31: 0%
June 26: 0%

VOL $8.7MRESOLVED Jul 31, 2026

POLITICSSETTLED

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

September 3053%

September 30: 53%
August 31: 32%
August 15: 14%

VOL $7.8MRESOLVED Jul 31, 2026

FED / RATESSETTLED

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Pause–Pause–Pause100%

Pause–Pause–Pause: 100%
Cut–Pause–Pause: 0%
Cut–Pause–Cut: 0%

VOL $929KRESOLVED Jul 29, 2026

Probabilities sourced live from Polymarket prediction markets, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.