Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Traders currently price "Karen Bass" at 68% for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: Karen Bass 68%, Nithya Raman 32%, Rick Caruso 0%, Asaad Alnajjar 0%. The market has traded $13.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Incumbent Karen Bass holds a clear edge in the November 3 runoff against progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman, reflecting her established support base in central Los Angeles neighborhoods with strong Black and Latino voter turnout. Bass advanced from the June primary with 34 percent amid ongoing criticism of her administration’s record on homelessness, public safety, and wildfire response, yet her incumbency and name recognition provide structural advantages in a citywide contest. Raman, who edged out a third-place challenger to reach the ballot, consolidates support among younger and left-leaning voters in areas like Silver Lake and Echo Park while highlighting generational and policy contrasts. With no major late-breaking developments since the primary and roughly three months remaining, trader pricing aligns with historical patterns favoring sitting mayors in contested runoffs unless significant shifts in turnout or endorsements occur.

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