Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

This market has settled: "September 30" was the outcome, priced at 53% at close. Full distribution: September 30 53%, August 31 32%, August 15 14%, August 7 5%. The market has traded $7.8M in total volume and resolved Jul 31, 2026. Recent escalations over maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in early July 2026, including Iranian strikes on vessels and subsequent U.S. responses, have tested the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum signed by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. That interim accord established a 60-day window for technical negotiations on sanctions relief, nuclear issues, ballistic missiles, and freedom of navigation, with mediation from Pakistan and Qatar. U.S. officials have reaffirmed commitment to continued diplomacy despite the flare-up, while indirect talks in Doha and Switzerland addressed implementation details. Key variables include verification of uranium stockpile steps, regional security guarantees, and enforcement of shipping protocols, all of which could shape prospects for a further round before the MOU timeline expires.

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