Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 3% for "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?". Full distribution: December 31 3%, March 31 0%, April 30 0%. The market has traded $7.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ongoing military operations between the United States and Iran, initiated by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, have continued without a formal congressional declaration of war under Article I of the Constitution. A June memorandum of understanding aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions, and advancing nuclear talks collapsed amid renewed Iranian attacks on shipping and U.S. strikes in July, followed by resumed blockades and demands for compensation in August. Intermediary diplomacy persists amid mutual compensation claims and Iranian leadership changes, while U.S. munitions constraints and regional spillover into Lebanon and the Gulf shape escalation risks. Traders weigh these dynamics against the low historical frequency of formal U.S. war declarations despite sustained hostilities.

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