Fed rate hike in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 56% for "Fed rate hike in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 7.0 points. The market has traded $7.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 9, 2026. Recent softer July CPI and employment data have tempered immediate rate-hike odds, supporting the 55.5% market-implied probability of no Fed hike in 2026. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and core inflation easing toward 2.5%, traders price only modest tightening ahead, as futures imply a gradual path toward roughly 3.8% by year-end. Persistent above-target inflation and resilient growth remain swing factors that could prompt FOMC action at the September meeting or later, while the closely balanced odds reflect uncertainty over whether labor-market cooling will outweigh price pressures through year-end.

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