How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Traders currently price "0 (0 bps)" at 85% for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.8 points. Full distribution: 0 (0 bps) 85%, 1 (25 bps) 10%, 2 (50 bps) 4%, 3 (75 bps) 1%. The market has traded $48.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, both still well above the 2% target after years of overshoot. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% in its July meeting, and recent dot-plot projections alongside market pricing reflect a bias toward stability or modest tightening rather than easing through year-end. Mixed labor-market signals, including July job losses, have tempered immediate hike expectations but have not shifted the consensus away from a restrictive stance. With the September FOMC meeting approaching and no near-term disinflation catalyst evident, the 85.2% implied probability of zero cuts captures the prevailing view that monetary policy will likely remain on hold absent clearer progress toward the inflation mandate.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.