Fed Decision in September?

Traders currently price "No change" at 75% for "Fed Decision in September?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. Full distribution: No change 75%, 25 bps increase 25%, 25 bps decrease 1%, 50+ bps decrease 0%. The market has traded $33.3M in total volume and resolves Sep 16, 2026. Recent softening in July inflation data, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core CPI slowing to 2.5%, alongside a weak nonfarm payrolls report showing job losses and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, has strengthened trader consensus around a Federal Reserve hold at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target for over five years, combined with upside risks from energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, continues to support a minority view favoring a 25 basis point increase. The July FOMC decision to maintain the 3.5-3.75% target range on a divided 9-3 vote further highlights the data-dependent balancing act between maximum employment and price stability, with futures markets aligning closely to these implied probabilities.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.