Fed rate hike by...?

Traders currently price "October Meeting" at 40% for "Fed rate hike by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: October Meeting 40%, September Meeting 23%, April Meeting 0%, June Meeting 0%. The market has traded $2.2M in total volume and resolves Oct 29, 2026. Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy prices, tariffs, and AI-related demand pressures, remain the dominant factor supporting market-implied odds of a 2026 rate hike, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75%. The July FOMC statement highlighted elevated inflation while noting a solid labor market that has since shown signs of cooling, including a weak July jobs report of just 57,000 payroll gains that lowered September hike probabilities in fed funds futures to around 40%. Three dissents at the July meeting favoring a 25-basis-point increase underscore internal hawkish views, though softer employment data and upcoming August CPI and September FOMC decisions introduce uncertainty around the policy path. Traders are monitoring whether inflation moderates enough to keep the target range unchanged through year-end.

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