Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 66% for "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. The market has traded $3.6M in total volume and resolves Nov 3, 2026. **California voters face Proposition 40 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, with revenues directed primarily to healthcare and smaller shares to education and food assistance.** The measure qualified in June after collecting sufficient signatures, yet recent polling shows divided support hovering near or below 50% in several surveys, with some indicating a narrow No lead. Governor Gavin Newsom has expressed opposition, while critics highlight risks of high-net-worth migration, long-term income tax revenue losses, and likely court challenges to the retroactive residency rule and constitutionality. These factors, alongside organized resistance from business interests and historical voter caution on wealth taxes, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Upcoming campaign developments and final polling could still shift momentum before election day.

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