Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 36% for "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.5 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 36%, December 31 0%, November 30 0%, March 31, 2026 0%. The market has traded $3.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent developments center on the July 2026 US-brokered roadmap through the Board of Peace, under which Hamas accepted a phased disarmament and weapons storage process tied to Israeli force withdrawals and aid increases. Hamas officials conditioned full implementation on prior Israeli compliance with ceasefire terms and withdrawal, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected the sequencing, citing security risks and insisting on complete disarmament first. Ongoing Israeli strikes and stalled mediator talks have prevented progress on verification mechanisms or the National Committee for Gaza administration. Trader consensus reflects these sequencing disputes and lack of mutual commitments, with resolution dependent on shifts in diplomatic pressure or enforcement timelines before December 31.

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