Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 93% for "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. The market has traded $3.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The U.S.-Cuba relationship remains defined by economic coercion rather than military action. Following the January 2026 capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration imposed a fuel blockade via executive order, cutting off oil shipments and authorizing tariffs on third-country suppliers, which has triggered severe shortages, blackouts, and protests on the island. Additional pressure includes the May indictment of Raúl Castro and stepped-up surveillance flights, yet official statements and Pentagon assessments emphasize sanctions, prisoner negotiations, and possible limited operations over any invasion scenario. Diplomatic channels remain active, including CIA-level meetings and Cuban concessions such as prisoner releases. With roughly four months left in 2026 and no deployment of invasion-scale forces, traders assign a 92.5% probability to “No,” viewing full-scale military intervention as the least likely among available policy tools.

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