Trump out as President before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 95% for "Trump out as President before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. The market has traded $10.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Trump’s second term, which began in January 2025, faces structural barriers to early removal that underpin the 94.5% trader consensus against an exit before 2027. Republican majorities in Congress have blocked advancement of impeachment articles, including those introduced in late 2025 and renewed amid April 2026 Iran-related tensions, while the 25th Amendment process requires vice-presidential and cabinet support that has not materialized. Approval ratings hovering near 37% reflect policy controversies and midterm pressures but have not generated institutional momentum for resignation or incapacity claims. No verified health events or official signals of departure have emerged, consistent with historical patterns where presidents rarely leave office early absent extraordinary triggers. The market resolution window through December 2026 leaves limited scope for reversal absent major new developments.

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