US military action against Cuba by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 20% for "US military action against Cuba by...?". Full distribution: December 31 20%, January 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $7.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. US economic and diplomatic pressure on Cuba has intensified since the January 2026 US intervention in Venezuela and capture of Nicolás Maduro, which severed Cuba’s primary oil supply. The Trump administration imposed an energy blockade, secondary tariffs on third-country suppliers, and expanded sanctions on Cuban military entities, officials, and sectors through multiple executive orders, triggering severe fuel shortages, blackouts, and economic strain. US naval assets including the USS Nimitz carrier group, surveillance flights, and Marine units have deployed to the Caribbean, while Pentagon planners have reviewed options ranging from targeted strikes to larger operations. Ongoing talks with Cuban officials coexist with public threats of further action and indictments such as that against Raúl Castro, though competing priorities including the Iran conflict and political costs at home create uncertainty around escalation timelines.

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