Anthropic IPO by __?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 81% for "Anthropic IPO by __?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 81%, October 31, 2026 64%, September 30, 2026 14%, September 15, 2026 2%. The market has traded $1.4M in total volume and resolves Jul 1, 2027. Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed its May Series H round of $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation, establishing the primary catalyst for elevated probabilities of a 2026 IPO. Rapid valuation expansion from $380 billion earlier in the year reflects sustained enterprise demand for Claude and run-rate revenue above $47 billion, drawing institutional capital into AI names. Market-implied odds price in a supportive equity window and completed SEC review by fall, though resolution hinges on regulatory timing, overall IPO market liquidity, and any shifts in broader risk appetite tied to Treasury yields or tech multiples. Trader consensus treats the filing as a concrete step toward listing rather than a guarantee, with comparable AI debuts providing historical precedent for execution risk in the final months.

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