OpenAI IPO by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 19% for "OpenAI IPO by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.5 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 19%, September 30, 2026 2%, August 31, 2026 0%, July 31, 2026 0%. The market has traded $2.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in early June 2026 initially signaled strong momentum toward a late-2026 listing, but reports by late June indicated the company is now leaning toward a 2027 debut to complete internal priorities easier as a private entity. Strong revenue growth, with annualized run rates exceeding $40 billion and enterprise contributing over 40 percent, supports high implied valuations near $1 trillion and underpins trader confidence in eventual listing. Competitive pressure from rival Anthropic’s parallel filing and broader AI market dynamics add context, while OpenAI leadership statements highlight flexibility on timing amid rapid model development. Key upcoming catalysts include further regulatory reviews and any updates on profitability milestones that could shift the window.

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