OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Traders currently price "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 83% for "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: No IPO by December 31, 2026 83%, 1.5T+ 6%, 750B–1T 5%, 1T–1.25T 3%. The market has traded $2.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. OpenAI’s reported internal preference to delay its IPO until 2027, despite a confidential S-1 filing in June, stands as the dominant factor anchoring the 82.5% market-implied probability of no public debut by year-end 2026. Recent liquidity events, including an August tender offer providing employee exits ahead of any listing, have eased immediate pressure while private valuations hover near $850 billion, well below the $1 trillion target discussed with bankers. Traders appear to price in regulatory, competitive, and structural hurdles that could push resolution into 2027, consistent with broader AI sector timing uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include any updated SEC disclosures or earnings updates that might clarify the path.

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