Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 18% for "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 18%, September 30 6%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $1.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Elon Musk’s July 2026 Tesla earnings call comments, highlighting deepening overlaps in AI chips, robotics, Terafab manufacturing, and Starlink integration, represent the main catalyst sustaining trader interest in a potential merger. SpaceX’s June IPO and subsequent hints from its president about simplifying Musk’s empire have amplified speculation, while reports of Tesla preparing to isolate its China operations underscore regulatory complexities that could delay or reshape any deal. No binding announcement has occurred, leaving outcomes dependent on upcoming earnings calls, board actions, and antitrust reviews. Traders monitor these milestones closely, as any official filing would immediately resolve related prediction markets.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.