Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Traders currently price "Magdalena Andersson" at 84% for "Next Prime Minister of Sweden". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: Magdalena Andersson 84%, Ulf Kristersson 16%, Jimmie Åkesson 1%, Ebba Busch 0%. The market has traded $3.6M in total volume and resolves Sep 13, 2026. Recent polling trends show Sweden’s Social Democrats maintaining a clear lead over the governing right-wing bloc ahead of the September 13 general election, with the centre-left opposition bloc holding roughly 50% support compared to around 47% for the Tidö parties. This positioning has driven trader consensus toward Magdalena Andersson as the next prime minister, reflecting her party’s consistent advantage in vote intention surveys and stronger personal confidence ratings. Incumbent Ulf Kristersson’s Moderates trail within their bloc, while smaller parties such as the Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and others register negligible probabilities for leading a government. The election outcome hinges on final turnout and coalition negotiations in the Riksdag, with no major late-breaking shifts reported in the past month that would alter bloc standings.

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