Iran leadership change by...?

Traders currently price "June 30, 2027" at 26% for "Iran leadership change by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: June 30, 2027 26%, December 31 18%, November 30 13%, October 31 10%. The market has traded $23.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed office in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, establishing continuity through Assembly of Experts selection while shifting influence toward IRGC commanders and security figures. Recent developments center on Mojtaba’s July statements rejecting U.S. commitments and warning of retaliation, alongside early August reports of his health concerns that Iranian state media countered with public video footage. Ongoing diplomatic talks involving Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian’s constrained role, and persistent regional tensions with Israel and the United States continue to shape assessments of potential further transitions. Traders weigh these signals against historical patterns of opaque succession processes and the risk of escalation or internal consolidation altering the current power structure.

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