Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Traders currently price "June 30, 2027" at 13% for "Putin out as President of Russia by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: June 30, 2027 13%, December 31, 2026 8%, September 30, 2026 2%, August 31, 2026 1%. The market has traded $20.6M in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2027. Putin maintains consolidated authority as Russia's president following his 2024 re-election and 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits to allow potential service until 2036. Recent verifiable developments include his June 2026 comments sidestepping succession questions and an August 13 visit to the Kuril Islands amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict and domestic military adjustments. The personalized autocratic system features no designated successor, with power balanced among loyal elites, marginalized opposition, and legislative structures aligned for continuity. Trader consensus on near-term removal reflects these structural barriers and lack of acute internal challenges, though outcomes remain subject to unpredictable health or elite dynamics.

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