Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 8% for "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?". Full distribution: December 31 8%, October 31 5%, August 31 1%, May 31 0%. The market has traded $17.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. US-Iran nuclear talks, mediated intermittently by Oman and shaped by the June 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, center on stockpile disposal as a core demand alongside enrichment limits and verification. Reports in May 2026 indicated Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access, yet Tehran quickly denied any commitment to full surrender or transfer abroad, favoring dilution under IAEA supervision instead. A subsequent June 2026 memorandum deferred detailed mechanisms, with no public resolution or binding commitment by mid-August 2026. Trader consensus on near-term dates reflects these persistent gaps, Iran's repeated assertions of sovereign enrichment rights, and the absence of IAEA-confirmed stockpile transfers or final agreements. Further diplomatic rounds or new proposals could still alter timelines.

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