Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 73% for "Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 73%, March 31 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $1.2M in total volume and resolves Jan 1, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market. An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.

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