Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 16% for "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 16%, October 31 0%, December 31 0%, November 30 0%. The market has traded $4.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Israel and Hamas reached a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in October 2025 under a 20-point framework that included hostage releases and phased implementation, yet the truce remains fragile nine months later amid persistent disputes over Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawals. Recent developments include Israeli strikes killing at least 18 people in early August 2026, followed by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s rejection of key elements in President Trump’s updated Gaza plan and insistence that forces will not pull back until full decommissioning occurs. Hamas has signaled conditional acceptance of disarmament tied to withdrawals and reconstruction steps, while the U.S.-led Board of Peace has stated that any withdrawal depends on verified disarmament. These positions, alongside periodic violations and stalled second-phase talks, shape trader assessments of which party is more likely to trigger a formal cancellation.

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