Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Traders currently price "United Russia (ER)" at 71% for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: United Russia (ER) 71%, New People (NL) 20%, Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 6%, Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 2%. The market has traded $19.3M in total volume and resolves Sep 20, 2026. United Russia maintains a commanding position in the market due to its role as the dominant ruling party with extensive administrative resources, media access, and institutional backing ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. Recent candidate list approvals featuring high-profile figures such as Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Lavrov, combined with strong performances in 2025 regional votes, underscore its structural advantages in securing a supermajority. Systemic opposition parties like LDPR, KPRF, and SRZP operate within constrained parameters that limit independent challenges, while New People has emerged as a secondary option in some assessments. A late August court ruling disqualifying Yabloko further illustrates barriers facing non-systemic contenders, with no major shifts altering the established hierarchy in the past month.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.