Geopolitics — 480 live markets
Every live geopolitics market on Polymarket, sorted by lifetime volume. Odds are the leading outcome's implied probability; colour is the 24h move.
- Netanyahu out by...?▲ 0.5pt45%$124.0M
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?▲ 0.1pt82%$95.5M
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?▼ 0.5pt9%$70.7M
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?▲ 1.0pt84%$58.6M
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?▼ 0.1pt96%$39.7M
- Iran leader end of 2026?▲ 0.9pt82%$38.6M
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?▼ 0.2pt53%$32.0M
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?8%$29.1M
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026▲ 2.6pt61%$28.6M
- Israel closes its airspace by...?▼ 1.0pt6%$27.0M
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?▲ 0.3pt100%$24.7M
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?94%$24.7M
- Iran leadership change by...?▼ 0.5pt26%$23.5M
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 20268%$23.4M
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?6%$21.8M
- Putin out as President of Russia by...?▲ 1.0pt13%$20.6M
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?▲ 1.0pt71%$19.3M
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?8%$17.8M
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?93%$17.0M
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?▲ 1.0pt19%$14.8M
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?▼ 3.5pt78%$14.6M
- Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?5%$14.2M
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?▲ 0.1pt97%$11.7M
- Trump out as President before 2027?▲ 1.0pt95%$10.7M
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?95%$10.6M
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms50%$9.7M
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?▼ 7.0pt31%$9.2M
- Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?▲ 1.2pt2%$9.1M
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?▼ 1.6pt87%$8.9M
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?▲ 0.5pt11%$8.4M
- Iran full airspace closure by...?▼ 2.0pt31%$8.3M
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?▲ 0.1pt100%$7.8M
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?▼ 0.1pt3%$7.8M
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?▲ 7.3pt64%$7.4M
- US military action against Cuba by...?20%$7.3M
- Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?▼ 1.0pt25%$6.7M
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?3%$6.3M
- Russia nuclear test by...?▼ 0.6pt5%$6.2M
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?▲ 0.5pt27%$5.9M
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?6%$5.4M
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?▲ 8.3pt70%$4.2M
- MLB: 2026 American League Champion▲ 0.5pt26%$4.2M
- NATO x Russia military clash by...?▼ 1.5pt22%$4.2M
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?▲ 0.5pt16%$4.1M
- MLB: 2026 National League Champion▼ 1.0pt46%$3.8M
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?11%$3.6M
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden▼ 0.5pt84%$3.6M
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?▲ 2.5pt13%$3.5M
- US strike on Mexico by...?▼ 0.5pt12%$3.4M
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?▼ 2.5pt36%$3.4M
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?▲ 0.5pt93%$3.3M
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?▲ 0.2pt93%$3.2M
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner98%$3.2M
- MLB: Home Runs Leader▼ 4.5pt40%$3.1M
- Will Hezbollah disarm by...?▼ 0.5pt12%$3.1M
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?94%$2.9M
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?▼ 1.0pt92%$2.9M
- Will Russia capture Lyman by...?▼ 3.5pt37%$2.9M
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?▲ 0.5pt41%$2.9M
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?88%$2.7M
- Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?7%$2.7M
- Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?3%$2.6M
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?83%$2.5M
- Ukraine election held by...?7%$2.5M
- Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?▼ 0.5pt13%$2.2M
- Will Alberta join the US? 98%$2.2M
- US strike on Colombia by...?▼ 4.0pt32%$2.2M
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?▼ 0.5pt11%$2.1M
- Iran coup attempt by...?▲ 0.5pt12%$2.1M
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?▼ 3.0pt19%$2.1M
- Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?▲ 0.4pt5%$2.1M
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?▲ 0.1pt99%$1.9M
- US x Russia military clash by...?▲ 0.1pt4%$1.8M
- Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?25%$1.8M
- Ukraine election called by...?13%$1.8M
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?▲ 9.5pt87%$1.8M
- MLB: ERA Leader▲ 0.1pt4%$1.8M
- Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?▼ 2.5pt17%$1.7M
- How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?▲ 6.0pt62%$1.6M
- MLB: AL Rookie of the Year87%$1.6M
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?▼ 0.2pt98%$1.6M
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?▲ 1.0pt89%$1.6M
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?86%$1.6M
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?16%$1.6M
- US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?7%$1.4M
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?▼ 0.1pt96%$1.4M
- Will any country leave NATO by...?4%$1.4M
- Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?17%$1.4M
- Lai Ching-te impeached by...?3%$1.4M
- MLB: Batting Average Leader▼ 5.5pt35%$1.3M
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner▼ 0.2pt98%$1.3M
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?▼ 1.0pt93%$1.3M
- Greece x Turkey military engagement by...?▲ 0.5pt4%$1.3M
- MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner▲ 0.1pt62%$1.3M
- MLB: 2026 NL MVP▲ 5.5pt53%$1.3M
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?▲ 0.1pt97%$1.2M
- Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?▲ 0.5pt73%$1.2M
- Iran Nuke before 2027?▲ 0.1pt96%$1.2M
- MLB: NL Platinum Glove Winner85%$1.2M
- Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?▼ 5.0pt10%$1.1M
TOP 100 OF 480 BY VOLUME · THE GALAXY SHOWS THEM ALL
AS OF Aug 15, 06:30 UTC · ODDS FROM POLYMARKET · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE