US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 8% for "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?". Full distribution: December 31 8%, September 30 2%, August 31 1%, April 30 0%. The market has traded $29.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Negotiations between the US and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program center on the fate of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, with US officials prioritizing removal or destruction of the material under any agreement. Recent diplomacy, including February 2026 talks in Geneva and a June memorandum extending a ceasefire, has featured US proposals for on-site dilution followed by export, alongside Iranian offers for in-country processing or third-country transfer such as to Russia. Tehran has consistently rejected direct handover to Washington, citing directives from its leadership, while logistical hurdles at fortified sites and verification requirements add complexity. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to US physical custody by late 2026, reflecting these diplomatic and procedural barriers despite ongoing mediation.

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