Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Traders currently price "↑500" at 100% for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?". Full distribution: ↑500 100%, ↑1k 100%, ↑2k 100%, ↑3k 95%. The market has traded $7.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. As of early August 2026, the CDC has confirmed 2,465 measles cases nationwide—already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289 and marking the highest annual figure since 1991. Ongoing transmission, concentrated in under-vaccinated communities and fueled by imported cases, has produced dozens of new infections weekly, including a recent surge adding nearly 100 cases. Measles’ basic reproduction number near 12–18 enables rapid spread where immunity gaps exist, with 20% of 2026 cases occurring in children under five. CDC weekly surveillance updates and the ongoing elimination-status review by the agency’s advisory committee represent key near-term data points that could influence market-implied odds on final 2026 totals.

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