Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Traders currently price "Somaliland" at 16% for "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?". Full distribution: Somaliland 16%, Egypt 9%, Lebanon 9%, Qatar 8%. The market has traded $1.6M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. US diplomatic pressure under the second Trump administration has centered on expanding the Abraham Accords, with Kazakhstan formalizing accession in late 2025 and Somaliland pledging to join after Israel's December 2025 recognition of its independence. Saudi Arabia remains the focal point for traders, though Riyadh has consistently conditioned normalization on concrete steps toward a Palestinian state, limiting near-term prospects despite repeated US encouragement. Syria and Lebanon have seen exploratory talks following regime changes and Hezbollah-related shifts, yet ongoing border tensions and Israeli military actions have stalled momentum. Sudan’s earlier declaration stays unratified amid civil war, while symbolic interest from states like Azerbaijan has not translated into new accessions. Resolution by end-2026 hinges on breakthroughs in US-brokered diplomacy or shifts in Palestinian-related conditions.

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