Ukraine election held by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 7% for "Ukraine election held by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 7%, December 31, 2025 0%, June 30, 2026 0%. The market has traded $2.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2025. Martial law, extended for the 20th time through October 31, 2026, and Ukraine’s constitutional ban on national elections during wartime remain the dominant barriers, keeping implied probabilities for any presidential or parliamentary vote by year-end 2026 at single digits. The Central Election Commission has explicitly ruled out balloting in 2026 amid active hostilities, damaged infrastructure, millions of displaced voters, and territories under Russian control. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any vote on a sustained ceasefire plus security guarantees for campaigning and soldier participation, while U.S. pressure for earlier elections has not altered Kyiv’s timeline. Parliamentary working groups continue drafting rules for post-martial-law voting abroad and voter registration, but no enabling legislation has passed. Recent August 2026 strikes and the absence of a peace framework reinforce trader expectations that elections will occur only after the current extension lapses or a deal materializes.

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