Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Traders currently price "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at 93% for "Highest grossing movie in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: Spider-Man: Brand New Day 93%, Avengers: Doomsday 7%, Dune: Messiah 0%, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 0%. The market has traded $17.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering July 31 opening, including a $360 million domestic debut that topped Avengers: Endgame, has propelled it past $1.7 billion globally within weeks and locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability. Strong Tom Holland–Zendaya star power, Marvel brand resilience after superhero fatigue concerns, and exceptional word-of-mouth have driven legs that already eclipsed Toy Story 5’s year-to-date total. Avengers: Doomsday remains the clearest path to an upset if its December release delivers comparable or superior event-level business, while weaker-than-expected holdover performance from Brand New Day or surprise legs from Dune: Messiah could narrow the gap, though current trajectories make those outcomes remote.

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