Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Traders currently price "July 18" at 100% for "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?". Full distribution: July 18 100%, July 20 100%, July 22 100%, July 25 100%. The market has traded $24.3M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Recent developments center on the fragile April 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding, which aimed to halt major hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic without restrictions, and address Iran's nuclear program within 60 days. Tensions persist due to repeated Iranian strikes on vessels bypassing approved routes, prompting U.S. naval responses, reimposed blockades, and intermittent exchanges of fire into August 2026. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan continue amid mutual accusations of violations, with U.S. officials citing progress toward a Hormuz deal while core disputes over sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and proxy activities in Lebanon remain unresolved. Trader sentiment on ceasefire continuation reflects assessments of these brinkmanship dynamics and any near-term diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.

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