Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 83% for "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?". The market has traded $2.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian industrial sites in August 2026 and reciprocal Russian missile attacks, underscore the absence of de-escalation. Kremlin statements in July explicitly noted no concrete new proposals for settlement and no immediate prospects for resuming talks, following earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced no agreement on territory, security guarantees, or ceasefire terms. Entrenched positions persist, with both sides conducting operations that sustain battlefield momentum rather than diplomatic momentum, leading traders to assign high probability against a formal peace deal materializing in the limited window before 2027.

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