Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 20% for "Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?". Full distribution: December 31 20%, August 31 1%, June 30 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $1.7M in total volume and resolves May 31, 2026. Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes and missile exchanges with Iran, initiated in late February 2026, have centered on degrading air defenses, missile sites, and nuclear facilities without a confirmed conventional ground invasion of Iranian territory. Unverified reports of limited Israeli special forces or Mossad activity inside Iran have surfaced alongside extensive ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iranian retaliation has focused on regional strikes and maritime threats, while Israeli officials emphasize air superiority and readiness for further action. Trader consensus reflects the logistical and political barriers to a large-scale ground operation, with low near-term probabilities tied to the emphasis on precision strikes and the absence of official confirmation or troop deployments on Iranian soil. Scheduled diplomatic or military reviews could alter trajectories.

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