Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 94% for "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?". The market has traded $24.6M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 protests and U.S.-Israel military strikes underpins the 93.5% "No" odds on collapse before 2027. Nationwide unrest triggered by rial collapse, hyperinflation, and shortages was contained through mass arrests, executions, and extended internet blackouts, with security forces showing no major defections. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei after the Supreme Leader's death maintained institutional continuity without power vacuums. The Islamic Republic's layered command structure, prior experience weathering sanctions and unrest, and absence of a cohesive opposition alternative have reinforced trader assessments that short-term survival remains the base case, despite persistent economic strain.

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