US strike on Colombia by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 41% for "US strike on Colombia by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 16.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 41%, January 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $2.2M in total volume and resolves Jan 31, 2026. Tensions between the United States and Colombia peaked in January 2026 after U.S. strikes on Venezuelan targets and alleged drug vessels prompted President Trump to publicly threaten military action against Colombia over counternarcotics shortfalls and record coca production. Colombian President Gustavo Petro described the remarks as a credible threat to sovereignty, citing prior decertification of Colombia as a drug-war partner and cuts to assistance. A direct phone call between the leaders and a subsequent White House meeting produced temporary de-escalation. Colombia’s August 2026 presidential transition to a Trump-aligned administration has further lowered the immediate risk of unilateral U.S. strikes, though ongoing disputes over drug interdiction, sanctions enforcement, and regional policy continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term military operation.

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