Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 89% for "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?". The market has traded $2.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2027. Taiwan's ongoing Han Kuang military exercises through mid-August 2026, involving record reservist mobilization and asymmetric tactics such as drone swarms and production relocation, underscore defensive preparations amid persistent cross-strait tensions. China's recent joint naval drills with Indonesia east of Taiwan and continued aerial incursions reflect standard coercion patterns rather than escalation toward conflict. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no invasion by December 2027 due to high military and economic risks for Beijing, Taiwan's improving deterrence capabilities, U.S. strategic ambiguity, and China's apparent emphasis on non-kinetic pressure. Reduced PLA activity levels in 2026 compared with prior years further support this market consensus, though scheduled leadership statements or exercises could still shift assessments.

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