Russia nuclear test by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 6% for "Russia nuclear test by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 6%, September 30, 2026 2%, November 30 0%, December 31 0%. The market has traded $6.2M in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2026. Russia has not conducted an explosive nuclear test since October 1990, adhering publicly to a voluntary moratorium while facing repeated U.S. compliance concerns over possible low-yield or supercritical experiments at the Novaya Zemlya site. In November 2025, President Putin directed officials to prepare proposals for potential testing in response to statements from the incoming U.S. administration about resuming activities on an equal basis, though Washington later clarified it would not pursue full-yield detonations. The expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026 removed the last major bilateral verification framework, amplifying uncertainty around strategic stability. Activity at Russian test facilities and statements from defense officials continue to signal readiness without confirming imminent explosive tests. Upcoming diplomatic engagements or shifts in U.S. policy could influence any decision timeline.

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