Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 5% for "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?". Full distribution: December 31 5%, December 31, 2025 0%, March 31 0%, January 31 0%. The market has traded $14.2M in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2026. The January 2026 U.S. special operations raid and targeted airstrikes that captured Nicolás Maduro established leverage over Venezuelan institutions without a sustained ground offensive or territorial occupation, shifting the situation into a stabilization phase. Interim authorities under Delcy Rodríguez have engaged in U.S.-backed national dialogue with opposition figures, while sanctions on oil and mining sectors were lifted and limited personnel assisted post-earthquake relief in June 2026. These steps, combined with reopened diplomatic channels and absence of new congressional authorizations for broader military action, have kept trader-implied probabilities for a qualifying invasion through year-end deadlines extremely low. Any shift would require escalation signals such as renewed strikes or rejection of reconciliation talks.

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