Israel closes its airspace by...?
- August 31
- 7%
- +1.0
- August 15
- 2%
- —
- May 8
- 0%
- −1.4
- May 31
- 0%
- −1.2
- June 30
- 0%
- —
- May 24
- 0%
- −3.0
- June 15
- 0%
- −1.1
- June 8
- 0%
- −36.4
- June 9
- 0%
- −1.1
- June 10
- 0%
- −2.5
- June 11
- 0%
- −3.8
- June 12
- 0%
- −1.4
- June 13
- 0%
- −0.9
- June 14
- 0%
- −0.5
- July 15
- 0%
- −0.8
- July 31
- 0%
- −1.5
- July 7
- 0%
- —
- July 24
- 0%
- −8.0
Traders currently price "August 31" at 7% for "Israel closes its airspace by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: August 31 7%, August 15 2%, May 8 0%, May 31 0%. The market has traded $27.0M in total volume and resolves May 31, 2026. Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, continue to shape trader views on the likelihood of Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile-drone attacks, with similar short-notice restrictions noted in June after intercepts of projectiles from Yemen. As of mid-August, civil aviation operations remain open under continuous security monitoring, though EASA advisories urge caution and many international carriers continue avoiding the Tel Aviv FIR. The low probabilities assigned to near-term dates reflect the current open status alongside persistent volatility that could prompt sudden restrictions if escalation occurs.
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