Ukraine election called by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 13% for "Ukraine election called by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 13%, August 31, 2026 1%, December 31, 2025 0%, June 30, 2026 0%. The market has traded $1.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ukraine's constitution and electoral code bar national presidential or parliamentary elections while martial law remains in force, a status parliament has extended for the 20th time through October 31, 2026. President Zelenskyy has tied any vote to a sustained ceasefire, security guarantees for campaigning and military voting, and roughly six months of preparation by the Central Election Commission amid damaged polling infrastructure and millions of displaced citizens. Public polling indicates broad domestic opposition to wartime balloting. These legal, security, and logistical constraints have kept trader-implied probabilities for an election by year-end 2026 very low, with any shift dependent on verifiable progress toward ending martial law or reaching a durable ceasefire within the resolution window.

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