US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Traders currently price "No" at 76% for "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. The market has traded $1.5M in total volume and resolves Aug 20, 2026. US-Iran talks under the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum face an imminent mid-August deadline for a final agreement on nuclear limits, highly enriched uranium stockpile disposition, sanctions relief, and monitoring. Progress has stalled amid reported MOU violations, absence of substantive advances in working groups, and fresh US demands for compensation. Iranian officials stated on August 12 that no extension discussions are underway, viewing the timeline as having no formal start date, while US statements describe further ceasefire prolongation as highly unlikely. These developments, combined with persistent gaps on core issues and lack of mutual consent signals, underpin trader consensus favoring no extension.

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