Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 95% for "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?". The market has traded $10.6M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. President Trump's renewed push for U.S. acquisition of Greenland in January 2026, including tariff threats on Denmark and discussions of military options, prompted immediate diplomatic resistance from Danish and Greenlandic officials, who rejected any sale or transfer of sovereignty. Trump later ruled out force during a Davos address, shifted toward negotiations yielding only a non-ownership framework with NATO partners, and continued envoy talks through mid-2026 without securing agreement. Greenland's government has consistently affirmed it is not for sale, while legal and alliance constraints limit unilateral action. With no completed territorial transfer by August 2026 and limited remaining time in the calendar year, traders assign overwhelming probability to the outcome not occurring.

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