Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 93% for "Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. The market has traded $2.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Martial law in Ukraine remains in effect through at least October 31, 2026, following repeated 90-day extensions approved by parliament and signed by President Zelenskyy, with the most recent measure running until that date.** Ukrainian law prohibits presidential elections during martial law, and the constitution permits the incumbent to continue exercising powers until a successor is sworn in. Zelenskyy’s original five-year term expired in 2024, yet no vote has occurred because of the ongoing Russian invasion and associated restrictions. Zelenskyy has consistently conditioned any election on a ceasefire plus security guarantees for voters and polling infrastructure, statements reiterated in late 2025 and early 2026 amid external pressure. Public polling shows majority Ukrainian opposition to wartime elections, while analysts note that even if martial law lifted immediately, preparation and voting timelines would push any contest well beyond year-end. Recent developments—such as the July 2026 replacement of the armed forces commander amid domestic protests—have not altered the legal or political barriers to an early exit. These structural and wartime constraints underpin the strong trader consensus that Zelenskyy will remain in office through December 31, 2026.

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