Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 91% for "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.6 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 91%, September 30, 2026 73%, August 31, 2026 31%, August 15, 2026 5%. The market has traded $8.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2025. Russian forces have concentrated significant manpower from multiple combined arms armies on Kostyantynivka as their main effort in the Donetsk theater, conducting sustained infiltration missions and urban assaults that produced incremental tactical gains through summer 2026. Russia claimed full capture in early July, but Ukrainian units and independent assessments indicate fighting remains contested, with Russian elements present in parts of the city while Ukrainian forces continue clearing operations and maintain positions in key sectors. Drone strikes on logistics routes, high attrition, and the city's role in Ukraine's eastern defensive network have slowed Russian consolidation. Trader odds on capture by near-term deadlines reflect these grinding urban dynamics and the absence of rapid operational breakthroughs despite repeated Russian pressure.

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