Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane
- 59%
- —
- Lamine Yamal
- 17%
- —
- Rodri
- 9%
- —
- Kylian Mbappé
- 8%
- —
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
- 4%
- +1.4
- Lionel Messi
- 2%
- —
- Ousmane Dembélé
- 2%
- —
- Fabian Ruiz
- 1%
- —
- Erling Haaland
- 0%
- —
- Jude Bellingham
- 0%
- —
- Michael Olise
- 0%
- —
- Declan Rice
- 0%
- —
- Vitinha
- 0%
- —
- Pau Cubarsi
- 0%
- —
- Mohamed Salah
- 0%
- —
- Vinícius Júnior
- 0%
- —
- Pedri
- 0%
- —
- Cole Palmer
- 0%
- —
- Federico Valverde
- 0%
- —
- Julian Alvarez
- 0%
- —
- Desire Doue
- 0%
- —
- Raphinha
- 0%
- —
- Achraf Hakimi
- 0%
- —
- Bruno Fernandes
- 0%
- —
- Luis Diaz
- 0%
- —
- Lautaro Martinez
- 0%
- —
- Dominik Szoboszlai
- 0%
- —
- Cristiano Ronaldo
- 0%
- —
- Rodrygo
- 0%
- —
- Enzo Fernandez
- 0%
- —
- Bukayo Saka
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Harry Kane" at 59% for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026". Full distribution: Harry Kane 59%, Lamine Yamal 17%, Rodri 9%, Kylian Mbappé 8%. The market has traded $28.2M in total volume and resolves Oct 31, 2026. Harry Kane leads trader consensus at 59.5% implied probability due to his record 73-goal 2025-26 campaign and domestic treble with Bayern Munich, which has established him as the frontrunner in post-World Cup assessments. Lamine Yamal sits at 17.1% after captaining Spain to the 2026 World Cup title with standout contributions, though his lower goal output relative to Kane limits his edge. Rodri and Kylian Mbappé follow at 8.5% and 7.5% respectively on the strength of consistent midfield control and attacking volume, while earlier-season favorites like Erling Haaland and Jude Bellingham have seen probabilities drop sharply below 1% amid limited major honors or World Cup impact.
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