How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Traders currently price "4" at 64% for "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 7.2 points. Full distribution: 4 64%, 5 27%, 6 4%, 7 1%. The market has traded $7.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Israel's military operations in 2026 center on the February-initiated campaign against Iranian targets, including missile facilities, air defenses, and leadership sites, alongside sustained airstrikes and ground actions in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure following cross-border escalation. These developments, which continued intermittently through mid-year ceasefires and violations, have established Iran and Lebanon as confirmed strike locations. Trader consensus around four or five countries reflects limited expansion beyond these fronts, with potential additional targets limited by diplomatic pressures, U.S. coordination, and de-escalation talks. Ongoing regional tensions, including proxy activity and border security operations, sustain modest probabilities for one or two further countries while capping broader outcomes.

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