Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Traders currently price "September 30" at 25% for "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?". Full distribution: September 30 25%, December 31 4%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $1.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Mohammed bin Salman maintains his position as Saudi Arabia's de facto leader through his roles as crown prince and prime minister under King Salman. Recent cabinet reshuffles in early 2026 further consolidated his authority ahead of any succession, while the king's health has remained stable following medical evaluations. These developments, combined with MBS's ongoing direction of Vision 2030 initiatives and regional diplomacy, underpin trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities for near-term removal. Structural factors such as royal family dynamics and the absence of credible challenges limit upside risks, though any sudden health event or internal shift could alter assessments within the resolution window.

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