Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 40% for "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?". Full distribution: December 31 40%, July 31 0%, October 31 0%, December 31 0%. The market has traded $2.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent developments center on stalled implementation of Phase II under the U.S.-backed Gaza roadmap. On August 11, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a 15-point plan from President Trump's Board of Peace, stating that further Israeli withdrawals from Gaza would not occur until Hamas completes full disarmament. Hamas accepted the same roadmap days earlier, calling for verified ceasefire adherence, aid increases, reconstruction commitments, and Israeli force pullbacks before discussing demilitarization or transfer of governance to the technocratic National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. Negotiations remain deadlocked over sequencing of these steps, with the fragile October 2025 ceasefire punctuated by reported incidents. Trader odds on a Phase II agreement by the market's resolution date reflect this impasse and potential for renewed diplomatic pressure or escalation signals in the coming weeks.

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