Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Traders currently price "No" at 98% for "Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?". The market has traded $1.6M in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 leadership losses and rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei underpins trader consensus that it will remain intact through September 30. Institutional continuity, IRGC cohesion, and ongoing intermediary diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief have allowed the government to manage internal pressures and external negotiations without evident fragmentation. Recent sanctions actions and factional debates within the Supreme National Security Council further signal operational stability rather than imminent breakdown. While mass defections in security forces, coordinated nationwide unrest, or sudden escalation could theoretically shift conditions, historical patterns and current indicators show low near-term probability of such rapid collapse within the resolution window.

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